How often can you be infected with Covid? Evidence shows re-infection is more likely

With many people returning to normal after the coronavirus pandemic, experts have warned it might be possible to catch the virus several times a year. Most domestic restrictions have gradually been lifted around the world, while travel rules have also been significantly relaxed or even scrapped entirely in some countries.

The changes come as increasing numbers of the world’s population now have some kind of protection from the virus, either through vaccination or immunity through previous infection. This week the Welsh Government revealed it would end its spring booster programme in June.

But experts have warned people could be re-infected with the virus a few times every year as people live alongside the virus. Because coronavirus has become more adept at re-infecting people, those infected with the first Omicron variant are reporting second infections with the newer versions of the variant and may go on to have third or fourth infections, even within this year.

Read more:Welsh Government announces who will get Covid jabs this autumn

Experts have predicted that waves of infection throughout the year might be the future. Juliet Pulliam, an epidemiologist at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, said re-infection with Covid is likely to be a “long-term pattern” in the years to come. “The virus is going to keep evolving,” she told the New York Times. “And there are probably going to be a lot of people getting many, many reinfections throughout their lives.”

Research conducted by Ms Pulliam and her colleagues in South Africa suggest that the rate of reinfection is higher with Omicron than seen with previous variants – something not predicted early in the pandemic.

“If we manage it the way that we manage it now, then most people will get infected with it at least a couple of times a year,” said Kristian Andersen, a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in San Diego. “I would be very surprised if that’s not how it’s going to play out.”

But despite reinfection being more likely to occur over time, even among those who are fully vaccinated, vaccination will remain an effective way of reducing your chances of ending up seriously ill or in hospital if you catch the virus.

Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University in New York, said in the New York Times that research suggests coronavirus is “not going to simply be this winter-time once-a-year thing,” but instead may re-appear throughout the year.

Back in April, Wales’ chief medical officer Frank Atherton warned “we must prepare for future resurgences over the summer and into the autumn” as the current wave of infection subsided: “I caution against complacency in assuming that future variants will be as (relatively) benign as Omicron; we should plan our response to future surges on the basis that more harmful, immune-evading variants may evolve,” he said at the time.

While experts warned recovery from Omicron may not protect from newer versions of that variant – and certainly not after three or four months – the good news is that most people who are re-infected with new versions of Omicron will not become seriously ill. Alex Sigal, a virologist at the Africa Health Research Institute, said this may change if a more severe variant is discovered that can sidestep the immune system more effectively: “That’s probably as good as it gets for now,” he said. “The big danger might come when the variant will be completely different.”